In the realm of Australian politics, a peculiar phenomenon is unfolding, one that has captured the attention of analysts and citizens alike. The rise of One Nation, a political force once considered fringe, has now become a significant player in the country's political landscape. But what's driving this surge in popularity, and is it sustainable? Let's delve into the heart of the matter, exploring the economic undercurrents that are shaping the nation's political discourse.
The Economic Underpinnings
At the core of One Nation's success lies a profound economic pessimism among Australians. The country is currently grappling with a cost-of-living crisis, a situation that has many drawing parallels to the turbulent 1970s. Households are feeling the pinch, and the term 'stagflation impulse' is being used to describe the economic pressures they face. This includes elevated inflation, stagnant wages, and a sense of financial insecurity, particularly among younger generations struggling to enter the housing market.
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute's consumer sentiment surveys paint a grim picture, with Australians expressing deep pessimism. This sentiment is further exacerbated by rising interest rates, which are a double-edged sword for prospective buyers and mortgage holders. The question arises: Why is this economic turmoil providing fertile ground for One Nation's message?
The Role of One Nation
One Nation, under the leadership of Pauline Hanson, has been adept at capitalizing on this economic discontent. The party has successfully tied housing affordability concerns and other economic ailments to immigration, a strategy that has resonated with many. As Jordan McSwiney, a researcher at the University of Canberra's centre for deliberative democracy, notes, One Nation is 'doing a bit of a bait and switch', using the context of housing and the economy to address what they truly want to talk about: immigration.
The party's campaign against net zero emissions and renewables further reinforces its talking points, providing a well-established platform for Hanson. However, the question remains: Why did the initial wave of inflation and cost-of-living pressures not spark the same level of support for One Nation?
The Sequence of Shocks
The answer lies in the sequence of economic shocks that have hit Australia. The latest rise in living costs, exacerbated by the Iran war, has seen households stock up on cheap canned goods and reduce spending on non-essentials. This has led to a sense of financial and emotional resilience waning, with new price hikes and mortgage rises adding to the existing economic pressures. As Gabriele Gratton, a professor of politics and economics at the University of New South Wales business school, points out, voters tend to react to a 'sequence of economic shocks' when shifting political positions.
The Political Landscape
One Nation's surge in popularity will be tested in earnest at the next federal election, scheduled for 2028. The global economic situation, with its uneasy fallout from the Iran war and potential oil supply disruptions, adds another layer of complexity. Hanson must now navigate the growing scrutiny that comes with being a central political player, and the question remains: Can her party offer credible solutions?
The problem for Labor is that there's no quick fix to the housing crisis, ensuring it will remain a major electoral issue. As McSwiney suggests, Labor is tasked with the 'long, slow process of announcing policies that are going to improve people’s everyday lives, and then delivering on those'. This is a challenge, but one that could potentially take the wind out of One Nation's sails.
Conclusion
In my opinion, the rise of One Nation is a reflection of the broader political landscape in Australia. It is a response to a sequence of economic shocks and a growing sense of economic pessimism. While One Nation has successfully capitalized on this discontent, the question remains: Can they sustain this momentum? The answer lies in the ability of mainstream parties to address the economic concerns of the people, and in the ability of voters to discern credible solutions from political posturing. As the nation navigates these turbulent times, the coming years will be crucial in determining the future of Australian politics.
